Weekly Technical Trade Levels on USD Majors, Commodities & Stocks
- Technical trade setups we are tracking into the start of the week on the USD Majors, commodities, bitcoin, and equity indices.
- Event risk on tap: Iran war headlines, Australia Employment Change
- Next Weekly Strategy Webinar: Monday, April 20 at 8:30am ET
- Review the latest Video Updates or Stream Live on my YouTube playlist
In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), and Bitcoin (BTC/USD), and S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.
US Dollar Price Chart – USD 240min (DXY)
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; DXY on TradingView
Notes: The US Dollar Index is trading just above pivotal support into the start of the week at the 98.50/69- a region defined by the 200-day moving average, the 38.2% retracement of the year-to-date range, the May low, and the August high-day close (HDC). The focus is on a reaction off this mark. A break / daily close below would expose the yearly open at 98.24 and the March open near 97.87.
Initial resistance is eyed with the 38.2% retracement at 99.33 and is backed closely by the January high at 99.49. Note that the upper parallel converges on this level later this week and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to suggest s more significant low is in place.
Bottom Line: The US Dollar is trading just above support into the start of the week. From a trading standpoint, rallies should be limited to 99.49 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the 200DMA needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.
Keep in mind the economic docket is light this week and the markets will be focused on developments out of the Middle East as Iran continues to threaten the Strait of Hormuz. Look for sentiment to drive here.
Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on TradingView
Notes: USD/CAD is testing confluent support here at the 200-day moving average and the 50% retracement of the November decline around 1.3811/18. Ultimately, a break / close below the highlighted trendline confluence near 1.3770s would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and invalidate the March uptrend. Subsequent support seen at the September & August lows, the yearly open, and the 38.2% retracement at 1.3725/33.
Initial resistance is eyed at the October low and the 61.8% retracement at .3889. Note that the upper parallel converges on this threshold over the next few days and a breach / close above this slope would be needed to mark uptrend resumption. Subsequent resistance eyed at the August & January high at 1.3925/29 and the 2022 high & 78.6% retracement at 1.3978/99.
Bottom Line: USD/CAD is trading just above the 200-day moving average with uptrend support just lower. It’s decision time for the bulls. From a trading standpoint, rallies need to be limited to 1.3889 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below the lower parallel needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
Economic Calendar – Key Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
