News & analysis

Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Brent–WTI spread tests long-term resistance as monthly RSI reaches overbought territory and key elections approach. Brent and WTI levels and risks ahead.

USD/CAD has delivered a bullish reversal signal from established support, just as traders prepare for Fed and BoC decisions. Aggressive Canadian rate hike expectations and conflicting momentum signals make the coming session important.

The current backdrop is modestly bearish. On Friday, the EUR/USD closed modestly lower, down for the third consecutive day. The pair also posted a weekly decline after staging a modest recovery attempt in the previous week. Out of the past 8 weeks, the EUR/USD has fallen on 6 occasions. There is not much supporting factors for the single currency right now. So, the upside remains capped.

Major cryptocurrencies continue to trade within a pattern of repeated rebounds without being able to break through key technical barriers, a situation that is gradually giving way to increasingly well-defined consolidation ranges.

A failed S&P breakout and looming Nasdaq support test raise the stakes for next week’s Fed decision and October’s monthly close.

With tech stocks getting hit harder last week there was collateral damage elsewhere, including gold as the metal closed below the $4k level for the week and that’s the first time that’s happened to spot gold in more than a year.

With just one week left in October, the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle to regain consistent demand. Although there was an attempt to recover earlier in the week, the move failed to gain traction and the market quickly returned to a more cautious tone, even as some competing markets began to lose part of their appeal.

Big tech earnings ramp up, with Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft updating the market as worries over heavy AI spending weigh on sentiment. UK banks are also in focus ahead of the Budget, with earnings from Lloyds, NatWest, Standard Chartered, and HSBC.

AI sentiment has become a major driver of US Treasury yields and USD/JPY. With Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon reporting this week, central bank decisions may have competition for traders' attention.

As the trading week comes to an end, one of the most relevant developments in the FX market has been the renewed strength of the Japanese yen. This can be seen in the recent performance of USD/JPY, which has fallen nearly 1.0% over the last two trading sessions, highlighting a meaningful recovery in the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar is working on its second consecutive red week and while sellers didn’t exactly pounce on fresh lows, there’s an opening door for bears to make a move.

Silver has broken its July low and slipped into a long-term support zone as the selling in precious metals deepens. The chart shows where the metal could bottom, and next week's Fed decision may decide whether it does.