U.S. stocks are pointing to a weaker open on Monday after President Trump rejected an Iranian ceasefire, sending oil prices higher and fuelling inflationary concerns and pushing Treasury yields higher.
The week has started with stocks, gold, silver and bitcoin all falling, as crude oil rebounded and bond yields pushed further higher. Trump refusing to agree to Tehran’s proposal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz has left the markets disappointed. Still, reports that mediators are expected to hold talks with the two sides on an amended version of the 7-day proposal that Iran presented, keeps hopes alive that we may see some progress.
Gold has dipped below its three-month uptrend, while Bitcoin has pulled back from a nine-month high as U.S. bond yields test levels last seen in 2004 and 2007. Risks build as Fed rate-hike expectations remain above 70%, while the Dollar Index holds near yearly highs.
Crude Oil Q4 2026 Outlook: The U.S.-Iran conflict has done more than disrupt oil flows. It has challenged many of the assumptions underpinning the global energy security system established after the 1973 oil embargo.
Oil Rises as U.S.-Iran Peace Hopes Fade. Gold Breaks Down on Hawkish Fed Expectations as Treasury Yields and USD Rise.
WTI is being pulled in opposite directions as Hormuz risk collides with growing political pressure over US diesel prices.
A stronger dollar, surging front-end yields and renewed geopolitical tension have combined to push gold back towards key technical support.
With only a few days left in September, the cryptocurrency market continues to show a constructive short-term outlook. The latest trading week has delivered meaningful gains across most major digital assets and, broadly speaking, the bullish bias remains the dominant force within the market.
Nasdaq strength contrasts with mounting Dow pressure as rising Treasury yields raise the stakes for stocks heading into the monthly close.
After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.
Surging Treasury yields sent a jolt across markets last week but, so far, gold prices have held above the FOMC low. The big question now is whether that can continue and, if not, will bulls show up at $4100 or $4k like they did in June and July?
With September nearing its end, the cryptocurrency market is beginning to show greater caution heading into the close of the week. This comes after a strong start, when prices moved sharply higher on the back of short-covering activity and renewed optimism surrounding potential regulatory developments for the crypto industry.
Strong US growth and hawkish Fed pricing continue to support USD/JPY, while intervention risk appears to be kicking in at lower levels
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