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Crude Oil Analysis: WTI Approaches $100 Amid Growing Supply Risks

Recent trading sessions continue to highlight a strong bullish bias across the oil market. As reflected in the performance of WTI crude, prices have maintained a solid recovery since the beginning of October and are now up more than 12% since October 8, a development that continues to underline the strength of demand in the short term.

Julian Pineda
Julian Pineda

Crude Oil Forecast WTI Prices Come Under Pressure as Middle East Risks Ease

Over the last two trading sessions, WTI crude oil has once again displayed a notable bearish bias, with prices falling nearly 6%. Part of this renewed selling pressure has been driven by recent developments in the Middle East, which have helped temporarily ease the geopolitical tensions that had supported the oil risk premium in previous weeks.

Crude oil forecast: How much further can WTI fall?

Oil prices initially opened higher following weekend reports that Iran had once again moved to restrict activity through the Strait of Hormuz. However, that early strength quickly faded, with crude retreating towards levels seen at the end of last week. At the time of writing, WTI crude was down around 2.5%, hovering near intraday lows. Part of the weakness reflects the fact that the strait was not completely shut, despite shipping data showing a notable decline in vessel traffic. More importantly, investors have responded positively to diplomatic developments in the region.

Crude oil outlook: middle east headlines keep traders on edge

At around lunchtime London time, we saw oil prices take a dump after Al Arabiya (again) reported that Pakistani army chief was on his way to Tehran. This was yet another daily optimistic headline emerging just ahead of the open on Wall Street. Lo and behold, this was later denied by Pakistan’s Foreign Minister saying he was "not aware of any visit" to Iran planned by the Army Chief, as reported by CBS. Oil went back up to turn flat on the day.

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