Powell

GBP/USD is again testing support in the 1.2625 area, and a break of this level could signal another leg lower as we move into September...

The annual Jackson Hole symposium has arrived, and once again Jerome Powell will be the highlight of the event. Last year his speech marked the beginning of a 20% decline for the S&P 500 (which was already in a bear market), so his words clearly packed a punch. We also have retail sales data for the UK, Canada and the US and earnings from a few US companies can also help us measure consumer sentiment.

The S&P 500 is still holding this week’s breakout above key previous resistance in the 4325 area, keeping bullish hopes alive

Gold is poised for a potential breakout around the Fed meeting after spending the last 4 weeks consolidating in a tight $50 range.

The Fed has toned down its statement to give it flexibility to pause the interest rate hiking cycle in May depending on incoming economic data

Due to a false breakout on weak volumes, we suspect the DAX will continue to mean revert against its bullish trend.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, investors are now pricing in a 60/40 shot of a 50bps rate hike in two weeks’ time and that rates could peak above 5.5%.

Market mostly traded in tight ranges ahead of Jerome Powell’s highly anticipated testimony to the House, which has the potential to be a volatile event.

The USD pulled back yet mostly held on to its post-NFP gains in anticipation of a hawkish speech from Jerome Powell this evening.

Over the course of the last 2 trading days, USD/JPY has moved from a low of 128.33 to a high of 132.90, a move of 457 pips.

Today’s FOMC meeting was uneventful. However, Powell’s press conference which followed provided less hawkish comments for the markets to feast on

Fed Funds futures traders are pricing in a full 50bps of interest rate cuts by the end of the year!

The big question on everyone's mind is, will Fed Chairman Powell be able to pull off another successful performance?

Investors are growing increasingly confident in their view that the Fed’s tightening cycle will end this quarter, before it starts an easing cycle in the third quarter.

If markets don’t care about what Powell has to say about interest rates, the next place to turn its attention to may be growth and the outlook for a possible recession in 2023!

The Fed Chairman isn’t yet willing to entertain a pause in rate hikes or the prospect of rate cuts in 2023, though he continues to emphasize the central bank’s data dependence...

While there seems to be a clear consensus that the central bank should slow its pace of rate hikes, the ultimate question for this week’s meeting will revolve around the so-called “terminal rate,” or how high the Fed will have to push interest rates next year before pausing the rate hike cycle.