The EUR/USD fell for the second consecutive week on Friday even though it managed a nice bounce from a key technical zone on Friday as risk assets all staged a rally. The EUR/USD outlook in the week ahead is likely to be impacted the most by the upcoming US jobs report on Wednesday.
Why did the dollar rally last week?
Last week, the US dollar was bid mainly due to the risk off tone that had hurt stocks, cryptos and metals for much of the week, before dip buyers emerged on Friday which also allowed the dollar to show delayed reaction to some softer labour market data released earlier in the week.
What to expect this week?
The re-pricing lower of US interest rates took the sting out of the defensive rally in the dollar at the end of last week. This could leave the dollar vulnerable into the upcoming US jobs data on Wednesday - expected around 70K on the headline front. Meanwhile with the ECB seemingly comfortable with the EUR/USD exchange rate, we could well be heading back towards $1.20 in the event of a jobs reporting missing expectations or not being surprisingly strong. Not much to look forward to from the euro side of things this week.
Technical EUR/USD weekly outlook
The EUR/USD printed a bullish engulfing-style candle on the daily chart on Friday, finding support exactly where it needed to, around the 1.1750–1.1765 area. This zone was previously resistance, marking the breakout level from late January, around the 23rd.
Price also found additional support from the 21-day exponential moving average, which is pointing higher and remains comfortably above the 200-day moving average. This provides an objective indication that the broader trend is bullish.
On top of that, we also have the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level sitting around 1.1770, measured from the January low at 1.1578 to the late-month high at 1.2083. This rally, which began in mid-January and peaked toward the end of the month, has so far respected this key Fibonacci level, adding further technical support.
Key EUR/USD levels to watch this week
The key question now is: where do we go from here? On the upside, initial resistance is seen around the 1.1835 area. This level corresponds to the low of the inverted hammer candle from a couple of weeks ago, visible on the weekly timeframe. If price manages to break above this level, it would suggest that sellers are starting to lose control, potentially triggering a short squeeze and a sharper move higher.
Beyond that, further resistance comes in around the 1.1900–1.1920 zone. Above there, the next psychological target is the 1.2000 handle, followed by this year’s high at 1.2083. These are the key near-term upside objectives.
On the downside, if the critical support zone between 1.1750 and 1.1770 breaks, we could see a move lower towards the 200-day moving average, which currently sits around 1.1625. Below that, there is very little in the way of meaningful support until the 1.1500 level.
EUR/USD outlook summary
In summary, the technical trend remains objectively bullish, with price holding above the main moving averages and a clear structure of higher highs and higher lows still in place.
However, the next major directional move may depend on the upcoming jobs report due on Wednesday, which could play a key role in determining the near-term direction of the US dollar.
-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst
Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R
