Key Events
- WTI bounces back above the $80 mark, lifting inflation concerns and pushing the DXY back near the 99 resistance level.
- EURUSD slips below the 1.16 support in line with the DXY’s bullish hold, while Strait of Hormuz risks persist.
- US CPI is due on Wednesday; however, much like the NFP, the Middle East conflict remains the dominant market driver.
Trump’s near-term resolution headlines, along with the IEA’s readiness to inject record supply into the market to regulate oil prices, reversed crude oil gains from the $100 threshold back down to the $80 zone. However, prices found support near the highs of June 2025, during last year’s Middle East conflict involving the US, Iran, and Israel.
If last year’s escalation now acts as technical support for this year’s conflict, we could be facing a longer cycle of crude rallies and sustained inflationary pressures.
Crude Oil Weekly Outlook – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The IEA’s reserves may provide short-term relief. However, a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 20 million barrels of oil per day transit, could outweigh the impact of additional supply while those reserves last.
With markets pricing in expected outcomes, the dollar continues to hold its ground near the 99 mark on inflation-driven assumptions, keeping EURUSD pressured near 1.16. Momentum appears stretched, leaving long-term key levels in focus to confirm the next structural move.
EURUSD Outlook: 2 Week & Monthly Time Frames – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
EURUSD is currently testing support above the 1.15 mark, extending from July 2025, amid the bullish hold in both crude and the dollar. Should the pair close below 1.1580 and 1.15, losses may extend toward 1.1420, 1.1330, 1.1240, and 1.1130, the upper bound of a descending channel in place since 2008, potentially offering dip-buying opportunities.
A decisive close below this level would expose the continuation of long-term bearish risks in line with the broader downtrend from 2008.
On the upside, the pair needs to reclaim 1.1660, 1.1760, and 1.1860 to realign bullish forecasts and reopen the path toward the 1.20 handle.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
