Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels
- Japanese Yen sets November opening-range just below yearly high / resistance
- USD/JPY strength persists despite weakness in USD, Treasury yields- rally may be vulnerable
- Resistance 151.69-152, 153.93, 157.62/80- Support 147.69-148.73, ~146, 145
The Japanese Yen continues to trade near the yearly extremes against the US Dollar with USD/JPY struggling just below multi-year resistance. The advance comes amid weakness in the US Dollar and Treasury yields and the non-confirmation high of related assets suggests the threat for exhaustion here. That said, a rally above a key technical pivot zone keeps the medium-term focus higher and we’re looking for a breakout of the November opening-range for directional guidance here. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Japanese Yen Technical Forecast, we noted that USD/JPY had , “pivoted above a key technical barrier with the monthly opening-range preserved between 147.69-150.15– look to the breakout for immediate guidance here.” The range held for weeks before breaking higher into the close of October. The advance faltered just pips ahead of resistance last week with price carving a well-defined November opening-range just below. Once again, we’re on breakout watch.
Weekly resistance remains at 151.69-152- a region defined by the objective November-open, the October high, the 1989 high, and the 1986 low. A topside breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next leg higher in price with such a scenario exposing the 2.272% Fibonacci extension of the yearly advance at 153.93- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
Weekly support steady at the 2022 high-week close / high-close at 147.69-148.73 – the trade remains constructive while above this threshold with a break / close below the March channel-line (currently ~145) ultimately needed to suggest a more significant high is in place.
Bottom line: USD/JPY has carved a well-defined monthly opening-range just below resistance – from a trading standpoint, the focus remains on a breakout of last-week’s range for guidance. Losses should be limited to 147.69 IF price is heading higher with breach / close above the 152-handle needed to mark uptrend resumption. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook once we get further clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.
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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Sr Technical Strategist with FOREX.com
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex