Key Events
- WTI crude oil rises above $80 per barrel, marking new yearly highs as Strait of Hormuz closure risks escalate alongside the Middle East conflict
- This surge in WTI is amplifying global inflation concerns, lifting the DXY on rate-hold expectations and capping short-term gains across gold and silver, until they eventually catch up as preferred inflation hedges
- US NFP is expected to decline from 130k to 58k, though it may be overshadowed by Strait of Hormuz risks
I covered the chain reaction between crude oil, the US dollar, and gold and silver in my previous video. Updated insights are detailed in the article below.
At the top of this chain is crude oil, driving gains in the US dollar while weighing on global indices and precious metals. We begin with the long-term key levels for WTI Crude Oil and DXY to assess the probability setup of this conflict translating into price action across gold and silver.
Crude Oil (WTI) Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The primary driver of market volatility amid the Middle East conflict and partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which channels roughly one-fifth of global energy supply, is crude oil. WTI is holding above its 2025 highs near $80 per barrel, eyeing the 2023 highs near $90 per barrel. A sustained move higher would extend the broader bullish rebound from 2020, reopening the path toward $120 per barrel. A close back below 78 exposes 74 and 70 once again.
Implications for precious metals and global markets are clear: higher inflation pressures, a stronger US dollar, and a short-term cap on metal gains.
US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The key structure on the US Dollar Index is the trendline connecting consecutive highs and lows since February 2023, currently holding as resistance below 99.50 and 100.40.
This resistance either:
- Opens the way for bullish continuation in line with the 2008–2026 uptrend
- Implications for gold and silver: short-term pressure given inflation and hawkish central bank expectations, but medium-term bullish given their inflation-hedge role
- Pressures price action back toward 98 and 96, potentially leading to a longer-term structural breakout lower
- Implications for metals: upside momentum may lead, confirmed by closes above key resistance levels
And finally, the key levels on gold and silver under current volatility conditions are as follows.
Gold Outlook: Daily Outlook – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Gold on the daily chart is holding its uptrend line connecting higher lows since February 2026, tilting slightly to the bearish side near the lower end of the 5,000 range amid stronger dollar price action.
Near-term support stands at 4,970. A close below exposes 4,820, 4,760, 4,660, and 4,480 respectively, offering potential dip-buying zones or a broader corrective phase before recharging the steep momentum seen in 2025 and 2026.
On the upside, closes above 5,220 and 5,260 expose 5,430 and the record 5,600, where either another pullback may occur or confirmation toward the 6,000 threshold, keeping gold on track toward the longer-term multi-year target of 10,000.
Silver Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
On the silver chart, risks of a bearish flag continuation pattern containing price action since the February 2026 lows are visible. A daily close below 78 and 74 exposes steeper downside toward 68, 60, and 51, potentially creating longer-term dip-buying opportunities.
On the upside, a break above the current channel confirms renewed bullish bias. A close above 85, 90, and 96 exposes extended gains toward 103 and 120.
If the bearish setups in precious metals play out, they may serve as a momentum reset before the primary bullish trends resume, opening dip-buying opportunities aligned with haven demand and inflation-hedge dynamics.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X :Rh_waves
