GBPUSD remains under pressure below 1.34 as the US Dollar holds firm above the 98 mark. The divergence in US–Iran ceasefire narratives continues to support elevated geopolitical and inflation risks, keeping the dollar and crude oil prices firm against broader markets. Bull and bear traps tend to become more frequent in such sentiment-driven environments, keeping the focus on higher time frame levels to filter out short-term noise.
The Bank of England had been leaning towards a rate cut in March amid improving inflation metrics. However, in line with the Fed’s cautious hold and the ECB’s hawkish stance, the BOE is also maintaining a cautious approach, particularly given persistent inflation concerns relative to UK growth dynamics.
A notable setup is also developing on the DXY, which could open the door for a bullish breakout against major currencies, while keeping downside risks for risk assets in play should key levels break.
DXY Setup: EURUSD, DXY Price Outlook: Double Top and Bottom Scenarios
Key Events to Watch, this week and the next:
- US–Iran ceasefire negotiations: any alignment or continued divergence in narratives
- Leading US economic indicators: ADP employment (Wednesday), unemployment claims (Thursday), and Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
- Crude oil price trends: monitoring further supply disruptions versus the development of alternative supply routes and stabilization efforts
Key Levels to Watch
- DXY: 100.50 resistance, 98 support
- WTI: 105 resistance, 80 support
- GBPUSD: 1.35 resistance, 1.32 support
GBPUSD Price Forecast: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The GBPUSD pair has been consolidating since June 2025, in line with EURUSD, below a resistance trendline connecting consecutive highs since 2023, maintaining an overall bearish tone below the 1.38 level.
Bullish scenario: a close back above 1.35 could open the path towards the 2023–2026 trendline, bringing price action back towards the 1.38 zone for either another pullback or a potential breakout towards the 1.40 level.
Bearish scenario: a close below the 1.32 mark would extend downside risks, aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels of the move between the 2025 lows and 2026 highs:
• 1.32: 0.382 Fibonacci retracement
• 1.3080: 0.44 retracement
• 1.2980: 0.5 retracement
• 1.2737: 0.618 retracement, a higher probability zone for longer-term bullish positioning
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
Follow on X: @Rh_waves
