The headlines seem negative in almost any place that you look, with surging Treasury yields and frothy AI valuations getting more and more attention. But, if it’s so bad, why hasn’t the Nasdaq melted down yet, even as the Fed has started hiking rates?
Sterling has rallied sharply from key support, with GBP/USD at an inflection point that could determine whether a larger recovery is underway.
U.S. stocks are rising and Treasury yields are falling after data showed that inflation increased at a cooler pace than expected, while U.S. consumer spending rose again in August.
AUD/USD fell after the RBA rate hike because the central bank's hawkish stance was already priced in while the U.S. dollar stayed firm.
The dollar was bouncing back at the time of writing, after it had eased overnight on the back of some weaker-than-expected economic data yesterday which had prompted markets to scale back expectations of an October Fed rate hike. However, with more significant US data due today and Friday, and with oil prices continuing to remain elevated, the dollar’s broader direction remains bullish.
The 10-year Treasury yield is testing a resistance zone respected since the 1920s, as bearish RSI divergence signals fading upside momentum.
GBP/USD: Can Stronger UK Growth Offset the Dollar’s Advantage? Oil: Supply Recovery Challenges the Geopolitical Premium.
A modest undershoot in Australian inflation has accelerated the unwind in hawkish RBA pricing, sending AUD/USD towards key support while lifting three-year bond futures and the ASX 200.
NZD/USD has fallen sharply as Fed rate expectations reset higher, but extreme downside stretch and major support raise the risk of a violent counter-trend rebound.
Recent trading sessions have not been particularly supportive of a clear directional move in Bitcoin. This can be seen in the behavior of the price over the last four sessions, where fluctuations have remained close to 1.00% without establishing a consistent trend. As a result, a growing sense of neutrality is beginning to emerge around BTC.
Core PCE inflation takes center stage Wednesday, with traders watching for signs of renewed price pressure and clues on whether the Fed could hike again in October.
USD/JPY has been a battlefield for the past two months as the force of intervention and the threat of more have given sellers an advantage, even as buyers have continued to bid support on pullbacks. This sets the stage for a massive finish to the week with Core PCE and Non-farm Payrolls.
The start of the trading week has not been particularly favorable for gold. This can be seen in recent XAU/USD price action, with the metal falling nearly 4.00% over the last two trading sessions and bringing renewed attention to a bearish bias within the market.
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