News & analysis

U.S. stocks are rising after weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs data saw markets rein in rate hike expectations.

The EUR/USD has tagged a fresh year-to-date low as French public-finance concerns trigger a government bond sell-off. Today's US jobs report may change little, with resilient activity, elevated energy prices and hawkish Fed bets keeping the greenback supported. With the pair trapped below resistance at 1.1410, the risk to the near-term EUR/USD forecast is tilted to the downside.

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are nearing a long-term resistance zone with overbought RSI readings, raising near-term pullback risk for the dollar.

USD/CAD has printed a clear bearish reversal pattern after an extraordinary September surge, but confirmation may depend heavily on how US Treasury yields react to Friday’s payrolls report.

USD/CHF reverses from channel resistance as bond volatility surges and broad Swiss franc strength points to a possible carry-trade unwind.

Over recent trading sessions, the Mexican peso has continued to show signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar. This can already be seen in USD/MXN, which has gained more than 1.7% over the last three sessions, highlighting sustained buying pressure in favor of the dollar in the short term.

The Canadian dollar continues to face one of its most challenging environments in recent months when it comes to maintaining strength against the U.S. dollar. The weakness of the Canadian currency is clearly reflected in USD/CAD, which has now recorded nine consecutive bullish sessions and gained more than 1.7% during that period.

Softer inflation has revived expectations for a Fed pause, but Friday’s payrolls could put gold’s recovery prospects to the test.

Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 90K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate at 4.1% - see what the leading indicators are suggesting!

U.S. stocks are falling at the start of Q4, as gains in software stocks offset concerns over soaring Treasury yields. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.66%, multi-decade highs.

The U.S. Dollar has held firm despite fading Fed hike bets, but Friday’s payrolls could test the rally’s staying power.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Outlook: The EUR/USD daily RSI has fallen to oversold levels last seen in 2020, raising the risk of a reversal across correlated currency pairs, including the US dollar and GBP/USD.