News & analysis

Over recent trading sessions, the Mexican peso has continued to show signs of weakness against the U.S. dollar. This can already be seen in USD/MXN, which has gained more than 1.7% over the last three sessions, highlighting sustained buying pressure in favor of the dollar in the short term.

The Canadian dollar continues to face one of its most challenging environments in recent months when it comes to maintaining strength against the U.S. dollar. The weakness of the Canadian currency is clearly reflected in USD/CAD, which has now recorded nine consecutive bullish sessions and gained more than 1.7% during that period.

Softer inflation has revived expectations for a Fed pause, but Friday’s payrolls could put gold’s recovery prospects to the test.

Traders and economists expect the NFP report to show that the US created 90K net new jobs, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y) and the U3 unemployment rate at 4.1% - see what the leading indicators are suggesting!

U.S. stocks are falling at the start of Q4, as gains in software stocks offset concerns over soaring Treasury yields. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the 10-year yield up 2 basis points at 5.31% and the 30-year at 5.66%, multi-decade highs.

The U.S. Dollar has held firm despite fading Fed hike bets, but Friday’s payrolls could test the rally’s staying power.

EUR/USD, GBP/USD Outlook: The EUR/USD daily RSI has fallen to oversold levels last seen in 2020, raising the risk of a reversal across correlated currency pairs, including the US dollar and GBP/USD.

When looking at the major tech-heavy US indices like the S&P 500 or the Nasdaq 100, you wouldn’t think that the stock market is particularly weak. Yet, beneath the surface, the market is far from healthy right now. Investors are evidently just piling into the big tech and AI names, and as a result, market breadth is deteriorating. Other indices like the small cap Russell 2000 and the Dow Jones are starting to reflect that weakness.

EUR/USD Drops to a 15-Month Low as French Fiscal Risks Add to Euro Pressure. FTSE 100 Slumps As Fiscal Concerns Deepen the Bond-Yield Sell-Off

Japan’s Tankan supports further BOJ tightening, although softer rate expectations could limit support for the Japanese yen.

Nikkei has started October with a powerful breakout, helped by renewed yen weakness and strong upside momentum

US yields, dollar strength and fading RBA hike bets have combined to drive AUD/USD to fresh multi-month lows. The macro and technical bias remains bearish, although history suggests parts of the move are now reaching unusually stretched levels.